Cognitive Biases

The 17 Cognitive Biases That Explain Brexit

It’s all in our heads. Unfortunately

http://chainsawsuit.com/comic/2014/09/16/on-research/

I was reading an article in the Guardian the other day, in which the author suggested that the current problem of #fakenews relates to a specific new type of cognitive bias, called Tribal Epistemology — that is, that truth no longer corresponds to facts or evidence, but rather whether a specific assertion agrees with the viewpoint of the tribe one belongs to.

I like that term, Tribal Epistemology. It seems like a nice term to define the cognitive and social constructs behind the fake news phenomenon.

It got me thinking, are there any other well-known cognitive biases that could go some way to explaining Brexit and all that shite?

Well, as it happens, yes. There are. 17 of them, in fact.

1/ Tribal Epistemology

Information is evaluated based not on conformity to common standards of evidence or correspondence to a common understanding of the world, but on whether it supports the tribe’s values and goals and is vouchsafed by tribal leaders.

The one that started me on this thought-trail.

How does Tribal Epistemology explain some of the reasoning behind fake news, and as a result, all the weirdness/awfulness in politics right now?

Well, if information is not considered factually true based on evidence but rather whether it conforms to ideals of the tribe, then you arrive at the silo state we’re in now, whereby any news or evidence that goes against your tribe’s beliefs is shunned as “fake news” , considered biased, or ignored entirely.

Only trusted sources count and so what effectively happens is that we double down on our beliefs — we believe something is true because our news source of choice tells us that, but our news source tells us that because we think it’s true.

A very neat explanation of the total shitshow we’re in, don’t you think?

2/ Dunning Kruger Effect

The tendency for unskilled individuals to overestimate their own ability and the tendency for experts to underestimate their own ability.

Most people are pretty stupid.

Before you get all aggy about that statement, do the maths. At absolute best anyone of average intelligence or below is by definition, pretty stupid. Depending on which average we’re talking about, that means potentially at least 50% of the population are thick as shit.

Maybe that includes you. Maybe that includes me (hint: nah).

The Dunning Kruger Effect suggests that people unskilled in intelligence (stupids) will not recognise just quite how unskilled they are in intelligence.

So you arrive at a situation whereby, let’s say 52% of the population (ahem) think they know more than the experts. We’ve had enough of experts, after all.

There might just be a slight relevance to Brexit in this one. Just a tad.

https://edzardernst.com/2018/01/the-dunning-kruger-effect-how-it-explains-alternative-medicine/

3/ Availability Cascade

A self-reinforcing process in which a collective belief gains more and more plausibility through its increasing repetition in public discourse (or “repeat something long enough and it will become true”).

Brexit means Brexit. No deal is better than a bad deal. We’ll just trade on WTO terms

All either tautologous or literally not true. But people fucking love the sound of ‘em, eh?

4/ Confirmation Bias

The tendency to search for, interpret, focus on and remember information in a way that confirms one’s preconceptions.

I’m definitely guilty of this. In fact, I found a series of tweets I posted that totally backs up that assertion.

Not often you get banter of that quality about cognitive biases. I looked for other examples but I couldn’t find any.

Example Brexiter’s view: all the projections about Brexit destroying the economy haven’t come true; PROJECT FEAR.

Me, an intellectual (and Remainer): it’s not actually happened yet you shithawks. Wait til next Christmas when you’re bartering your last tin of Heinz beans and sausages for a blue inhaler.

https://www.deviantart.com/tomfonder/art/Happy-Jar-Confirmation-Bias-457186601

5/ Backfire Effect

The reaction to disconfirming evidence by strengthening one’s previous beliefs.

The IMF predicts the economy will collapse post-Brexit — TRAITORS

Airbus is gonna leave the UK — WELL THEY WOULD THEY’RE BLOODY EUROPEAN

Almost every economist, every lawyer, every business leader, everyone with even one iota of understanding of what Brexit will actually mean is against it — PROJECT FEAR! TALKING THE COUNTRY DOWN! BREXIT MEANS BREXIT!

6/ Curse of Knowledge

When better-informed people find it extremely difficult to think about problems from the perspective of lesser-informed people.

The cross we must bear.

7/ Empathy Gap

The tendency to underestimate the influence or strength of feelings, in either oneself or others.

People really don’t like the EU. Brexity people I mean. I never realised quite how much they dislike it. I do now. I still can’t understand why, but I know they do. My empathy gap has got smaller. Go me.

https://www.scoop.it/t/empathy-and-compassion

8/ Illusory Truth Effect

A tendency to believe that a statement is true if it is easier to process, or if it has been stated multiple times, regardless of its actual veracity.

No deal is better than a bad deal seems to make sense right? A bad deal is a bad deal, how can anything be more bad than a bad deal?

What that, quite frankly brilliant piece of propagandising doesn’t take into account (though is fully aware of) is that no deal is a bad deal.

But that’s confusing, isn’t it. No deal is a bad deal and is as bad as a bad deal and really there is no good deal, just bad deal. Fuck that shit, I VOTED LEAVE…

9/ Irrational Escalation/Sunk Cost Fallacy

The phenomenon where people justify increased investment in a decision, based on the cumulative prior investment, despite new evidence suggesting that the decision was probably wrong.

Count the number of times you’ve seen a positive ramification of Brexit appear in the news since the 2016 referendum that hasn’t immediately been shot down as total bollocks.

Literally, every piece of evidence points to it being a ridiculous, awful, suicidal decision for our country.

But we’ve done it now, will of the people, so we can’t change our minds. Article 50's in, can’t back out now (not true, fyi). We’ve opened the alt-right fuckwit can of worms, can’t stop now or they’ll be angry.

We’ve sunk a lot into this already, but that doesn’t mean we can’t cut our losses now. It’s Irrational Escalation/ Sunken Cost Fallacy holding us back.

https://lindalisten.wordpress.com/2016/10/12/the-sunk-cost-fallacy/

10/ Negativity Bias

Psychological phenomenon by which humans have a greater recall of unpleasant memories compared with positive memories.

Remember bendy bananas? Or the fish that we used to have or something? I dunno, whatever it is that the EU took away from us. Sovereignty or whatever.

What about all the stuff the EU gave us:

EHIC, freedom of movement, environmental protections, multilateral trade, right to reside, roaming-free mobile networks, enshrined human rights etc.

None of that is as juicy for our ape brains to grab hold of though, we just remember that they took our bananas. The bastards.

11/ Normalcy Bias

The refusal to plan for, or react to, a disaster which has never happened before.

Why did David Cameron’s government not have a plan in place to deal with a leave win?

How come the current government is only just now beginning to cotton on to the fact that no-deal is the most likely outcome?

Normalcy bias. None of this has happened before. No point planning for the non-happeny.

12/ Planning Fallacy

The tendency to underestimate task-completion times.

Linked to the above.

Wonder if Theresa May wishes she’d just given herself a few extra months to negotiate?

Wonder if David Davis still thinks negotiating a deal will be “the easiest thing ever”?

Or I wonder if perhaps, they were subject to Planning Fallacy?

https://t.co/X0YfrDPy65

13/ Reactance

The urge to do the opposite of what someone wants you to do out of a need to resist a perceived attempt to constrain your freedom of choice.

Somehow, the most backward, inward, regressive vote in generations managed to get branded as an anti-establishment, kick-up-the-arse-of-the-status-quo vote.

This was mostly because certain types of people will often turn to Reactance when making decisions. What do the people who control things not want to happen? Fuck it, let’s do that then.

Also explains why so many thought voting leave would simply be a protest vote. Few thought the establishment would let it happen.

14/ Semmelweis Reflex

The tendency to reject new evidence that contradicts a paradigm.

What if I was to tell you we could have had blue passports all along? What if I was to say we could have had stricter border controls this whole time?

Well, we know that now. But Brexiters don’t seem to accept that.

That’s the Semmelweis Reflex in action. To accept these facts as truth would destroy part of the image of the EU as the big bad dictatorship they have in their minds. So they don’t accept them.

http://donmcminn.com/2017/04/avoid-semmelweis-reflex/

15/ Third-person effect

Belief that mass communicated media messages have a greater effect on others than on themselves.

Vote Leave cheated and broke electoral law. Russia interfered in the campaign to steer the direction of the result towards leave.

WELL I DIDN’T VOTE LEAVE BECAUSE OF THAT!

Well, you might have.

There’s a reason why advertising and PR exists. Because it works.

You might think it doesn’t work on you. It does.

You probably voted leave because you saw loads of Russian bots spewing fake news on Twitter.

Sorry, but it’s true. You are just that easy to manipulate.

16/ Parkinson’s Law of Triviality

The tendency to give disproportionate weight to trivial issues. Also known as bikeshedding, this bias explains why an organization may avoid specialized or complex subjects, such as the design of a nuclear reactor, and instead focus on something easy to grasp or rewarding to the average participant, such as the design of an adjacent bike shed.

I love this one. To me it sums up Brexit perfectly.

How do we go about renegotiating trade deals with each individual EU member state on 100s of different areas of trade without breaking world trade rules?

We just leave and trade on WTO terms.

…erm, yes, but I mean, how do we do that, specifically, without drastically increasing the price of existing consumer goods or flatlining our manufacturing industry?

We leave, and they’ll come to us. It’s simple, they need us more than we need them.

No I don’t think you… oh forget it.

http://markbidwell.com/blog/parkinsons-law-of-triviality-2/

17/ False Consensus Effect

The tendency for people to overestimate the degree to which others agree with them.

Sometimes I think everyone has come to their senses and realised Brexit is total bullshit. That doesn’t last long.

I think a lot of Brexiters believe most of their fellow countrymen, even if against Brexit before the vote, now back it. They don’t.

Strange to suggest that one of our problems is that we believe we agree on more than we do, but I think that’s actually the case here.

Hopefully you understood that this piece was an attempt at a humorous explanation of Brexit through the lens of cognitive biases, and if you didn’t, well I’m afraid you’re probably guilty of all of the above. Lol.

See also The Five Signs of Lack of Intelligence

The Lasting Legacy of Ovid

Ovid Banished From Rome - JMW Turner

I was lucky enough to have my attention drawn to a fascinating BBC piece: Ovid: The Poet and the Emperor that immediately brought my prep-school days back to me through the memory of sitting in Mr Jevons's class learning some of Ovid's poems by heart. Astonishingly, not having looked at them for over 60 years, I can immediately bring back the first few lines of Arion VII, such is the power of learning by rote. How sad that this technique is these days apparently decried.


Until I heard the BBC programme, I only had a dim idea that Ovid has been the inspiration behind much great work in the two thousand years since his death, His poems have even been described as the most influential in the Renaissance, when artists strove to capture images of the stories that they contain, and they were certainly much loved by Shakespeare.  His greatest series of poems, the Metamorphoses,, explores myths such as that of Acteon who stumbled upon the goddess Diana bathing, and in her anger he is transformed into a stag - who is then torn apart by his own hunting dogs. 

Titian - The Death of Actaeon

Ovid knew full well that hubris that would lead inevitably to nemesis and that the Gods were implacable and capricious even before his downfall and banishment from Rome. The cause of his downfall seems to have been his early and highly explicit love poems - 'The Art of Love' - as well as a 'mistake' -  but one that he refused to reveal. It may simply have been something he saw accidentally while at the court of the Emperor, Augustus, but like Diana, Augustus was implacable and despite years of entreaty by his wife, his reprieve never came. During his long exile in Romania - then an outpost of the Roman Empire where they didn't even speak Latin, he wrote continuously about exile and the themes in his later poems have been wrought into the works of Neruda, Sheamus Heaney, Becket and Bob Dylan. I'm so glad that Michael Wood has resurrected him for me as well.

See also Favourite Paintings - Landscape with the Fall of Icarus - Peter Breughel the Elder

and Titian at the National Gallery - Love, Desire and Death

The Scourge of Intensive Farming

Stocks Down Farm from Old Winchester Hill

The most important books I have read in 2018 are about the way our food is produced and the massive and destructive changes to our age-old farming practices brought about in the last 60 years. These are principally the change from raising animals on pasture to feeding them inside on surplus grain, coupled with the use of chemicals to sustain high levels of grain production. The loss of pasture grazing also brings about a steady decline in soil fertility and a reduction in nutrients finding their way into our food. 

These books are 'Grass-Fed Nation' by Graham Harvey (2016) and 'Wilding' by Isabella Tree (2018). 

In 'Grass-Fed Nation' Graham Harvey writes: 'We have allowed a small cabal of laboratory scientists and their corporate backers to change the very nature of the food we eat. They have substituted their own technologies for the natural processes that have fed humankind since we evolved on the planet. And they are fast destroying the land that feeds us. No one asked us if we wanted our food produced by Monsanto and Syngenta rather than by nature. There’s been no national debate, no referendum, and it would be hard to think of an issue more important than the nature of our food. The silent revolution has been mostly brought about by the secretive lobbying of governments and public servants. Fortunately, we now have the knowledge and the means to reverse the takeover of the food supply. It’s an opportunity presented to us by our grasslands. All we have to do, each one of us, is to insist that the meat dairy foods that we eat come from animals grazing pasture. It will mean our diets are healthier. Even more important we will be putting nature back in charge of the food supply.

Other  practices such as 'no-dig' and growing a diverse range of crops instead of a moncuture of wheat barely and rape are also extremely beneficial.  Interestingly, these practices originate in the US where the degradation of soils has long been a serious issue.,

Note: I grew up on a farm - Stocks and Harvestgate Farms in the valley below Old Winchester Hill - which were farmed by Patrick Lawford from 1950 to 2002. Originally there were sheep on the downs and wheat, barley, and potatoes in the lower fields. Beef cattle were also reared on pasture and crops and pasture were rotated in the time-honoured fashion. Patrick brought a shepherd from Litchfield who stayed with us for many years. We had a Jersey cow for milk,  butter, and cream, and lots of chickens (when not decimated by the fox) scratching about on grass next to the vegetable garden. Although the farm gradually became largely arable (mainly barley for malting), it has now, under a new owner, reverted almost entirely to sheep.

And, as a further aside, my parents were friends with George and 'Dorrie' Stapledon who argued against subsidies for farmers and, rather that proper prices should be paid for food to enable farmers to sell their produce at above the costs of production. The present system simply subsidizes the consumer by allowing large industrial farms to sell their produce at or below the actual costs of production because of the whole acreage subsidies they receive. 

Heron Wars in Stockbridge

The garden in winter 

The tranquillity of the garden in winter has recently been replaced by the threat of a predatory heron. He arrives at about 7.30 each morning and stands on the roof of the garage to check the lie of the land before flying down to the lawn and then walking across to the pond to begin his predations. I watched 'my' bird for some time this morning and although he couldn't see me, he was wary and stood on the lawn for about 20 mins before flapping off. 

The heron waiting before approaching the pond

I went out at lunchtime and when I returned, he had been waiting and launched himself off the top of a huge chestnut nearby and flew over my head giving loud krrraarrk calls before returning to the tree. I hoped he might have been pleased to see me but in fact, I think they were either taunts or calls of thanks - because when I got to the pond I could see from the 'dust' that he leaves on the surface that he had been in. Curiously, although he has been visiting daily for a couple of weeks now, there still seem to be almost as many fish in the pond, and I can only assume that they hide successfully in the mud at the bottom or that he is following doctor's orders and taking only one a day.

The heron standing beside the pond

They are magnificent birds an stand over 3ft tall with a wingspan of 6ft.  As the RSBP website puts it, 'they are not easily deterred'. They also become tolerant of humans - and we of them

Update as of April 2019: I have waited for the water to warm up and the fish, if any, to energe from the mud where they have spent the winter, but I am sad to report that I can see only one fish. The rest have gone. 

Favourite Quotes - John Ruskin

John Ruskin by Millais

“It's unwise to pay too much, but it's worse to pay too little. When you pay too much, you lose a little money - that's all. When you pay too little, you sometimes lose everything, because the thing you bought was incapable of doing the thing it was bought to do. The common law of business balance prohibits paying a little and getting alot - it can't be done. If you deal with the lowest bidder, it is well to add something for the risk you run, and if you do that you will have enough to pay for something better.”

There is scarcely anything in the world that some man cannot make a little worse, and sell a little more cheaply. The person who buys on price alone is this man's lawful prey.

"Keep nothing in your houses you don't know to be useful or believe to be beautiful"

There is no wealth but life. Life, including all its powers of love, of joy, and of admiration. That country is the richest which nourishes the greatest numbers of noble and happy human beings; that man is richest, who, having perfected the functions of his own life to the utmost, has also the widest helpful influence, both personal, and by means of his possessions, over the lives of others.

Thomas Miller Carol Service 2018 and the City

Thomas Miller Carol Service at St Katerine Cree Church

The Thomas Miller Carol Service was held at St Katerine Cree Church on 11th December 2018 and was attended by many of the present staff as well as a number of retirees.

The City has changed much since last year as vast offices go up. Here are a few photos showing the scale of the new buildings.

The view from our office at 90 Fenchurch St. The building on the right is where our old building once stood. 

The Gherkin and the Aviva Building on St Mary Axe.

The Willis Building and Lloyd's

Lime St with the 'Walkie-Talkie' building at the end

Favourite Poems - A Shropshire Lad

Into my heart on air that kills
From yon far country blows:
What are those blue remembered hills,
What spires, what farms are those?

That is the land of lost content,
I see it shining plain,
The happy highways where I went
And cannot come again.

AE Houseman

'Pity the Nation' - Lawrence Ferlinghetti

Favourite Poems - The Wound in Time

Pages of the Sea practice at Lyme Regis the day before Remembrance Sunday 11th November 2018. 

THE WOUND IN TIME

It is the wound in Time. The century’s tides,
Not the war to end all wars; death’s birthing place;
the earth nursing its ticking metal eggs, hatching
new carnage. But how could you know, brave
as belief as you boarded the boats, singing?
The end of God in the poisonous, shrapneled air.
Poetry gargling its own blood. We sense it was love
you gave your world for; the town squares silent,
awaiting their cenotaphs. What happened next?
War. And after that? War. And now? War. War.
History might as well be water, chastising this shore;
for we learn nothing from your endless sacrifice.
Your faces drowning in the pages of the sea.

chanting their bitter psalms, cannot heal it.

Carol Ann Duffy, 2018